Talk:AnsarAllah attacks Israel linked shipping

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Marine Traffic Live December 19, 2023 - filtered to display cargo ships only, as 11 biggest shipping firms said to halt Red Sea transits

More sources

--Resup (talk) 18:20, 19 November 2023 (UTC)


USS Gravely

Yemeni spokesman claiming a hit. US sources say - USS Gravely (DDG-107) was forced to use her Phalanx Close-In Weapons Systems (CIWS) last night during a “Close Call” with a Anti-Ship Cruise Missile launched by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen; the Cruise Missile is reported to have come within 1 Mile of the Ship likely following a Miss or Malfunction with an SM-2 Interceptor Missile.

2024, Lost US Navy SEALS

If the story is to believed at all the pair went missing off the coast of Somalia. Based on the geography that may to point activity around Socotra archipeligo. Abd Al-Kuri is closer to the Somali coast than Socotra itself.

I didn't think Centcom's story of the dhow interdiction checked out. Why would it be close to Somalia? US Navy taking the 14 man crew of the dhow but losing two SEALS. And this photo [1] of the advanced "Iranian missile components" onboard also hard to credit.

US Marines known to have deployed to Socotra by late 2019 if not before. And also reports of UAE constructing military base and runway on Abd al Kuri. Report of an Israel corvette sent to Socotra late December also.

Some action with Somali pirates quite likely as a cause. [2], [3]

Houthi's not in charge Socotra, but many remaining residents may likely be restive. --Diagonal (talk) 20:02, 22 January 2024 (UTC)

The incident may not be related to Socotra, but the official story is not checking out. --Diagonal (talk) 15:40, 18 February 2024 (UTC)


Seymour Hersch account raises more questions than it answers:

  • Few have motors or any means of electronic communication, and the larger dhows, like the one targeted by the SEALs, often serve as living quarters for the smugglers’ families.
How were the Navy tracking it, then?
  • On January 13, the New York Times, citing two current and two former Pentagon officials, published the first account of the two deaths, which were said to have taken place while the SEALs were attempting to board a dhow at night.
If the dhow was tracked why not wait until daylight to intercept it?
  • The sea was rough, and one SEAL slipped off the boarding ladder. The initial report claimed that a second SEAL jumped into the water in an effort to save his colleague and both drowned. It was not clear whether he was also on the ladder or jumped from the inflatable speedboat known as a RHIB, for rigid hulled inflatable boat, that the SEALs used to approach the ship
If two rhibs were in the vicinity how did they not manage to pick the man up.
  • It had been tracked by American intelligence since leaving Somalia because it was believed to be carrying ballistic missile parts needed by the Houthis in their ongoing campaign against Western shipping
Why bother routing Irainian supplies via Somalia?
  • As many as nine SEALs may have been aboard the SEALs’ inflatable speedboat—there was a second boat with no SEALs aboard as backup—as it dashed to the dhow that, as ordered, came to a stop and acknowledged that it was to be boarded. Three SEALs began the treacherous climb aboard the vessel. It is not known just what happened
How did they pick up all the 14 dhow crewmen on the two RHIBS in the rough seas?
  • “There were some obsolete rocket motors, all Iran-made, and some pieces of Styx missiles from the 1950s and ’60s, but no significant missile components among the cargo, other than ancient engines and some random tubes that had been used in missile attacks. There was the usual cargo of liquor, cigarettes, random knock-off clothing, porn cassettes.”
Centcom claimed earlier they'd found advanced missile components.
  • The Somali smugglers were taken prisoner and placed on Navy vessels that came to the scene, and the dhow sent to the bottom.
Why not just send the Navy vessels to dhow in the first place, why bother with SEAL team in dinghys, and for a dhow that would agreed to be boarded?
  • The two deaths were reported, but over the next few days, the retired officer said, all involved “were playing the game,” keeping as many details as possible under wraps. The Lewis B. Puller was locked down in extreme secrecy. The names of the dead were made public, but not that of the survivor, if he does survive. His is a story that no one in the Navy wants told.

--Diagonal (talk) 15:40, 18 February 2024 (UTC)

Red Sea Fibre Optic Cables

Background

Prior Speculation

telegram channel details not given. US National security think tank complex source

Claims

HGC Global Communications described the Seacom-TGN-Gulf line as being two separate cables when it is actually one at the area of the cut, according to Tim Stronge, a subsea cable expert with TeleGeography...

Reports

Statements, Prior Disavowals

Mundane explanations

Recent activity

Centcom Not very convincing evidence of "houthi submersibles from Iran"
The plan will now also meet the challenge of the Houthis sea attack drones. It follows last week's game changing detonation of a so-called Unscrewed Surface Vessel (USV) packed with explosives. A mixed Special Forces team drawn from the SAS and SBS has already been deployed to the US base in Djibouti, which sits on the opposite side of the edge of Bab al-Mandab, from which Houthis have launched some of their 20 or so attacks. The 80-strong SF team includes bomb disposal experts, linguists, comms experts and medics. Its main role, sources say, will be to use mini-submersibles to strike Yemen and Iranian motherships carrying sea drones packed with explosives. The primary site is understood to be Mokha, south of the main port at Al-Hudaydad


British/US resources

Djibouti

Mokha

It's likely that any US/UK SF in Yemen for Red Sea related ops are operating from emirati/tareq saleh militray bases here. ALso happens to be a landing bay for internet cables in Mokha.

Analysis

Discussion

Possibility had already been raised before feb 26 and Ansarallah sources said they had no intention. In terms of the capacity for submersibles that could do the job. The US probably has more capability than the Yemenis, I think it's fair to say. I can't beleive houthi asbm or drones would have that effect either--Diagonal (talk) 10:07, 27 February 2024 (UTC)

It's hard to understand why Seacom only referred to outage on the Egypt-Kenya line. I'm guessing the in the red sea it would be paired with Seacom's India cable which wasn't reported as down.--Diagonal (talk) 21:02, 3 March 2024 (UTC)
This AP article seems to make my point. The India and Africa Seacom branches would be together in the Red Sea. The junction would be around Socotra. The reported Seacom statement referred to an outage on the Egypt Kenya line. --22:32, 5 March 2024 (UTC)

Later reports, analysis March

John Helmer Coverage

On December 18th John Helmer posted an article in which he assessed there hadn't been recent engagements between Russian Foreign Ministry and the "Houthis".

In the past, Moscow officials have consistently defended the Yemeni state’s sovereignty, including its territorial waters in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Ministry has also defended “dialogue with the Houthis and other Yemeni political associations, as well as with all interested states”. Russia has also proposed that the United Nations legalize and regulate all operations impacting Yemen. But that was long ago. The last but one statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry mentioning the Houthis, the civil war in Yemen, and Saudi military intervention was issued six and a half years ago, on March 17, 2017:

He noted another meeting in January 2018, that was with the Hadi puppet regime officials. According to him..

There is no Foreign Ministry record of a meeting with Hisham Sharaf, Foreign Minister since 2016 of the Sanaa-based Yemeni (Houthi) government. The Russian Embassy in Sanaa was evacuated in December 2017. In November 2019, Moscow appeared to be saying the only international Red Sea operation it would countenance for Yemen should be led by the United Nations (UN). “We”, declared the Ministry’s press department, “urge the parties to the Yemeni conflict to do everything in their power to keep up this positive change so as to be able to stop the hostilities altogether and to launch a UN-led process of peaceful settlement based on the regard for the interests of all the main political forces as well as religious and regional groups in Yemen. We are still convinced that these developments will not only benefit friendly Yemen but will also help to ensure security of all the neighbouring countries.”

I left this comment on his article, which did not pass moderation:


There have been a few contacts between Ansarallah – National Salvation Government (Houthi) representatives and the Russian Foreign Ministry in recent years.

Might be one or two I’m missing here.

Although the developing partnerships with UAE and KSA clearly take precedence. Those two have both opted out of Prosperity Guardian according to reports.


Three days later he publishes an article on Russia negotiating with the Houthis - https://johnhelmer.net/running-the-red-gauntlet-russia-is-negotiating-with-the-houthis-for-red-sea-passage-of-oil-cargoes-defying-us-eu-sanctions/

Diagonal noted on December 21, 2023

--Diagonal (talk) 19:01, 28 January 2024 (UTC)